Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
70.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W43-35 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W24-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W41-21 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W35-10 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 100.0% | 70.3% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.4% (-0.9%) | 73.2% (+2.9%) | |
| 70.9% (+0.6%) | 70.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.7% (+0.4%) | 70.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.4% (+0.2%) | 70.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.3% (+0.0%) | 70.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.7% (-1.6%) | 70.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 70.9% (+0.6%) | 70.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 77.8% (+7.5%) | 67.8% (-2.5%) | |
| 70.9% (+0.7%) | 70.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 71.0% (+0.7%) | 70.2% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Mercer
Kentucky
Coastal CarolinaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KentuckyCCG: 77.8% • Scenario: 24.9%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
70.3%
90.2%Any 1 loss
70.2%
9.7%
70.8%
0.9%
70.2%
8.8%72.2%
0.1%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16