American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-23
Conference Standings
| T1 |  North TexasUNT | 6-1 | 10-1 | 94.8% | |
| T1 |  TulaneTULN | 6-1 | 9-2 | 77.2% | |
| T1 |  NavyNAVY | 6-1 | 8-2 | 24.5% | |
| T4 |  South FloridaUSF | 5-2 | 8-3 | 1.9% | |
| T4 |  East CarolinaECU | 5-2 | 7-4 | 1.5% | |
| T6 |  MemphisMEM | 4-3 | 8-3 | - | |
| T6 |  UTSAUTSA | 4-3 | 6-5 | - | |
| T8 |  ArmyARMY | 3-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| T8 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 3-4 | 4-7 | - | |
| T8 |  TempleTEM | 3-4 | 5-6 | - | |
| 11 |  RiceRICE | 2-5 | 5-6 | - | |
| T12 |  TulsaTLSA | 1-6 | 4-7 | - | |
| T12 |  UABUAB | 1-6 | 3-8 | - | |
| 14 |  CharlotteCLT | 0-7 | 1-10 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 94.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 97.4% (+2.6%) | 94.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (-93.0%) | 100.0% (+5.1%) | |
| 94.8% (-0.0%) | 94.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 95.8% (+0.9%) | 94.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 94.9% (+0.0%) | 94.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 95.0% (+0.2%) | 94.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 94.8% (-0.0%) | 95.1% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
North TexasCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 94.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
North TexasCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 94.8%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
North TexasCharlotteUABMemphisEast CarolinaCharlotteUABArmyEast CarolinaCharlotteArmyNavyRiceMemphisFlorida AtlanticRiceArmyFlorida AtlanticData from 2025-11-23
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North TexasUNT | - | - | 100% | 1.9% | - | 94.8% |
| TulaneTULN | - | - | 79.8% | 1.4% | - | 77.2% |
| NavyNAVY | 100% | 28.7% | - | - | 4.1% | 24.5% |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | 2.0% | - | 1.9% |
| East CarolinaECU | - | - | - | 1.8% | - | 1.5% |
| ArmyARMY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-23
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 5-3 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TulaneTULN(6-1) | - | 0.0% | 96.7% | 3.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| North TexasUNT(6-1) | - | 0.0% | 94.8% | 5.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| NavyNAVY(6-1) | 9.3% | 46.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| South FloridaUSF(5-2) | - | - | - | 97.3% | 0.0% | - | 2.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| East CarolinaECU(5-2) | - | - | - | 85.1% | 0.0% | - | 14.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| MemphisMEM(4-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 78.7% | - | 21.3% | - | - | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| UTSAUTSA(4-3) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 49.6% | - | 50.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| ArmyARMY(3-4) | - | - | - | - | - | 28.4% | - | 49.8% | 0.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(3-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 14.9% | - | 85.1% | - | - | - | 3.1 |
| TempleTEM(3-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 5.3% | - | 94.8% | - | - | - | 3.1 |
| RiceRICE(2-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 2.7% | 97.3% | - | - | 2.0 |
| UABUAB(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | 1.6 |
| TulsaTLSA(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | 1.4 |
| CharlotteCLT(0-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3.3% | 96.7% | 0.0 |
Data from 2025-11-23