American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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17 of 17 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 57.3% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 42.7%	2.0%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 68.8% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 31.3%	1.9%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 57.0% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 43.0%	1.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 77.8% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 22.2%	1.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	NavyNAVYTulaneTULN	0.3%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	NavyNAVYTulaneTULN	0.3%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 56.6% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 43.4%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 77.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 22.6%	0.2%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 34.6% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 28.2% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 20.5%	<0.1%
7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 58.6% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 41.4%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 61.5% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 38.5%	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 52.9% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 47.1%	<0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF	<0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 70.0% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 30.0%	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.