Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
77.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-17 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L26-48 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | W38-32 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W35-24 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W37-13 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 96.7% | 79.8% |
| 6-2 | 3.3% | 1.4% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4% (-75.8%) | 79.8% (+2.6%) | |
| 97.7% (+20.4%) | 76.1% (-1.1%) | |
| 77.1% (-0.1%) | 77.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 76.4% (-0.8%) | 77.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 77.3% (+0.1%) | 77.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.9% (-72.3%) | 96.8% (+19.6%) | |
| 77.4% (+0.2%) | 76.1% (-1.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulane
TempleCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 5.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Tulane
MemphisCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 76.1%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
TulaneMemphisTulaneTempleTemple
TulsaMemphis
East CarolinaTemple
RiceMemphisData from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
79.8%
96.7%
1.4%
3.3%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23