Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-23
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 6-1 | 7-4 | 85.2% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 6-1 | 8-3 | 58.7% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 6-1 | 8-3 | 52.5% | |
| 4 |  Missouri StateMOST | 5-2 | 7-4 | 3.5% | |
| T5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 4-3 | 6-5 | - | |
| T5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 4-3 | 6-5 | - | |
| T7 |  DelawareDEL | 3-4 | 5-6 | - | |
| T7 |  LibertyLIB | 3-4 | 4-7 | - | |
| 9 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 2-5 | 4-7 | - | |
| T10 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 1-6 | 2-9 | - | |
| T10 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 1-6 | 2-9 | - | |
| T10 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-6 | 2-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 85.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 44.3% (-40.9%) | 100.0% (+14.8%) | |
| 85.2% (-0.0%) | 85.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 85.3% (+0.1%) | 85.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 73.6% (-11.6%) | 90.1% (+4.9%) | |
| 85.3% (+0.1%) | 85.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 92.2% (+7.0%) | 79.5% (-5.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 73.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 73.5%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Jacksonville StateLibertyLouisiana TechData from 2025-11-23
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 44.3% | 85.2% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 35.4% | 52.5% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | - |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - |
| LibertyLIB | - | - | - |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | - |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-23
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(6-1) | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(6-1) | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(6-1) | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Missouri StateMOST(5-2) | - | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(4-3) | - | - | 79.1% | 20.9% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| Louisiana TechLT(4-3) | - | - | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| DelawareDEL(3-4) | - | - | - | 76.5% | 23.5% | - | - | 3.8 |
| LibertyLIB(3-4) | - | - | - | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | - | 3.7 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 66.0% | 34.1% | - | 2.7 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 34.1% | 66.0% | 1.3 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 23.5% | 76.5% | 1.2 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 20.9% | 79.1% | 1.2 |
Data from 2025-11-23