Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
52.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W27-22 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | L6-25 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-16 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W42-26 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | L10-13 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 26.5% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 73.5% | 35.4% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% (+47.5%) | 35.4% (-17.1%) | |
| 52.5% (-0.0%) | 52.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 52.4% (-0.2%) | 52.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.4% (-26.1%) | 63.6% (+11.0%) | |
| 52.6% (+0.1%) | 52.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 52.8% (+0.3%) | 52.3% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 26.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 26.5%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
Western KentuckyData from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
26.5%
35.4%
73.5%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23