Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
58.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W45-26 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | W33-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W24-21 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L26-35 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W41-34 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 29.7% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 70.3% | 41.3% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
80.9%
19.1%
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 42.4% (-16.3%) | 64.6% (+5.9%) | |
| 58.7% (+0.0%) | 58.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 58.9% (+0.2%) | 58.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 100.0% (+41.3%) | 41.3% (-17.4%) | |
| 58.5% (-0.2%) | 58.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 55.0% (-3.7%) | 61.7% (+3.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 29.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 29.7%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
29.7%41.3%
70.3%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23