Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
54.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L7-28 | |
| 11 | 11/05 | W42-3 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | W24-3 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W38-9 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 83.5% | 64.8% |
| 5-3 | 16.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.2% (+0.1%) | 53.3% (-0.8%) | |
| 83.9% (+29.7%) | 51.9% (-2.3%) | |
| 64.8% (+10.7%) | 0.0% (-54.1%) | |
| 60.1% (+6.0%) | 53.4% (-0.7%) | |
| 53.4% (-0.7%) | 56.4% (+2.3%) | |
| 83.7% (+29.5%) | 7.6% (-46.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball StateToledoCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 5.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Toledo
Western MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 51.1%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
ToledoWestern MichiganBall StateToledo
Bowling GreenToledo
Kent State
BuffaloData from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
64.8%
83.5%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23