SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-23

SECConference Standings

1Texas A&MTA&M7-011-046.6%
2GeorgiaUGA7-110-163.0%
T3AlabamaALA6-19-280.9%
T3MississippiMISS6-110-19.5%
T5OklahomaOU5-29-2-
T5TexasTEX5-28-3-
T5VanderbiltVAN5-29-2-
8TennesseeTENN4-38-3-
T9LSULSU3-47-4-
T9MissouriMIZ3-47-4-
T11FloridaFLA2-63-8-
T11KentuckyUK2-65-6-
T13AuburnAUB1-65-6-
T13Mississippi StMSST1-65-6-
15South CarolinaSC1-74-7-
16ArkansasARK0-72-9-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

143.9%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
237.0%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
39.7%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
49.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 80.9%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
Texas A&MTA&M@TexasTEX
80.8%
(-0.1%)		80.9%
(+0.1%)
MississippiMISS@Mississippi StMSST
80.9%
(+0.0%)		80.7%
(-0.1%)
GeorgiaUGA@Georgia TechGT
80.9%
(+0.0%)		80.8%
(-0.1%)
Florida StFSU@FloridaFLA
80.8%
(-0.0%)		80.9%
(+0.0%)
MissouriMIZ@ArkansasARK
80.9%
(+0.0%)		80.8%
(-0.1%)
AlabamaALA@AuburnAUB
100.0%
(+19.1%)		0.0%
(-80.9%)
ClemsonCLEM@South CarolinaSC
80.8%
(-0.1%)		80.9%
(+0.1%)
KentuckyUK@LouisvilleLOU
80.8%
(-0.0%)		80.9%
(+0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@TennesseeTENN
80.9%
(+0.0%)		80.8%
(-0.0%)
LSULSU@OklahomaOU
81.1%
(+0.2%)		80.8%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabama

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 80.9%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabama

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 80.9%

Ways for Alabama to Clinch SEC CCG Spot This Week

AlabamaAlabama
80.9%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-1Overall
AlabamaALA-100%80.9%
GeorgiaUGA-63.0%63.0%
Texas A&MTA&M100%1.6%46.6%
MississippiMISS-10.4%9.5%
ArkansasARK---
AuburnAUB---
FloridaFLA---
KentuckyUK---
LSULSU---
Mississippi StMSST---
MissouriMIZ---
OklahomaOU---
South CarolinaSC---
TennesseeTENN---
TexasTEX---
VanderbiltVAN---

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
Texas A&MTA&M(7-0)45.8%54.2%-------7.5
GeorgiaUGA(7-1)-100%-------7.0
MississippiMISS(6-1)-91.5%8.5%------6.9
AlabamaALA(6-1)-80.9%19.1%------6.8
OklahomaOU(5-2)--72.8%27.2%-----5.7
TexasTEX(5-2)--54.2%45.8%-----5.5
VanderbiltVAN(5-2)--33.6%66.4%-----5.3
TennesseeTENN(4-3)---66.4%33.6%----4.7
MissouriMIZ(3-4)----65.8%34.2%---3.7
LSULSU(3-4)----27.2%72.8%---3.3
FloridaFLA(2-6)------100%--2.0
KentuckyUK(2-6)------100%--2.0
AuburnAUB(1-6)------19.1%80.9%-1.2
Mississippi StMSST(1-6)------8.5%91.5%-1.1
South CarolinaSC(1-7)-------100%-1.0
ArkansasARK(0-7)-------34.2%65.8%0.3

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com