Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W41-35 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-19 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L35-43 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-26 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W30-14 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W49-0 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W34-24 | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 91.5% | 10.4% |
| 6-2 | 8.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-9.5%) | 17.5% (+8.0%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.9%) | 0.0% (-9.5%) | |
| 9.5% (-0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.1%) | 9.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.1%) | 9.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-9.5%) | 49.5% (+40.1%) | |
| 9.5% (-0.0%) | 9.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.5% (-0.0%) | 9.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.5% (+0.1%) | 9.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.0%) | 9.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 9.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 9.5%
Ways for
to Clinch
CCG Spot This Week
Data from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
10.4%
91.5%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23