Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	Overall
Boise StateBOIS	100%	99.8%	60.8%	5.5%	75.0%
UNLVUNLV	100%	93.7%	41.2%	2.2%	69.0%
San Diego StateSDSU	100%	95.1%	44.8%	2.5%	25.6%
Fresno StateFRES	-	99.1%	50.4%	2.8%	17.5%
San José StateSJSU	-	72.9%	17.0%	0.2%	4.5%
Utah StateUSU	-	100%	63.9%	3.2%	3.1%
Hawai'iHAW	-	96.8%	48.5%	2.6%	1.8%
WyomingWYO	-	86.0%	27.2%	0.8%	1.5%
New MexicoUNM	-	-	59.2%	1.9%	1.1%
Colorado StateCSU	-	100%	67.8%	4.3%	0.8%
NevadaNEV	-	-	87.5%	10.8%	<0.1%
Air ForceAF	-	-	-	-	-

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
UNLVUNLV(2-0)	17.0%	42.3%	29.5%	9.4%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	-	-	6.6
Boise StateBOIS(2-0)	19.0%	37.7%	29.2%	11.5%	2.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	-	-	6.6
San Diego StateSDSU(2-0)	1.8%	11.2%	27.6%	32.7%	20.2%	6.0%	0.7%	-	-	5.2
Fresno StateFRES(2-1)	-	4.4%	24.1%	37.7%	25.6%	7.5%	0.8%	-	-	4.9
San José StateSJSU(1-1)	-	2.7%	14.2%	30.1%	31.2%	16.9%	4.4%	0.4%	-	4.4
WyomingWYO(1-1)	-	0.4%	4.0%	16.7%	31.7%	30.9%	13.9%	2.5%	-	3.6
Hawai'iHAW(2-1)	-	0.2%	2.7%	14.5%	34.2%	35.3%	13.3%	-	-	3.6
Utah StateUSU(1-1)	-	0.3%	3.6%	15.5%	31.4%	32.2%	14.8%	2.2%	-	3.6
New MexicoUNM(0-2)	-	-	1.5%	12.1%	29.5%	33.1%	18.4%	4.9%	0.5%	3.3
Colorado StateCSU(1-1)	-	<0.1%	0.8%	5.9%	21.2%	36.1%	28.1%	8.0%	-	2.9
Air ForceAF(0-4)	-	-	-	-	5.0%	23.7%	38.6%	26.3%	6.4%	1.9
NevadaNEV(0-2)	-	-	<0.1%	0.2%	2.3%	11.0%	28.8%	37.6%	20.0%	1.4

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com