UNLVRebels

6-0 T1st (2-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

69.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	W31-17
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	W51-48
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	Win prob:38%
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	Win prob:82%
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:84%
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:81%
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	Win prob:91%
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:86%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	17.0%	100.0%
7-1	42.3%	93.7%
6-2	29.5%	41.2%
5-3	9.4%	2.2%
4-4	1.5%	0%
3-5	0.2%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

70.6%

14.9%

10.2%

2.6%

1.7%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
San José StateSJSU@Utah StateUSU	67.7% (-1.4%)	70.0% (+1.0%)
Hawai'iHAW@Colorado StateCSU	69.0% (-0.1%)	69.1% (+0.1%)
UNLVUNLV@Boise StateBOIS	90.2% (+21.2%)	55.9% (-13.2%)
WyomingWYO@Air ForceAF	68.4% (-0.7%)	69.4% (+0.4%)
NevadaNEV@New MexicoUNM	69.1% (+0.1%)	69.0% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Utah State

Hawai'i

UNLV

Wyoming

New Mexico

CCG: 91.5% • Scenario: 2.7%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

CCG: 90.2% • Scenario: 38.3%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

17.0%

Any 1 loss

93.6%

42.3%

98.4%

3.1%

98.2%

1.7%

98.2%

3.8%

97.9%

3.6%

97.7%

2.8%

91.2%

27.2%

Any 2 losses

41.2%

29.5%

57.3%

0.3%

56.4%

0.6%

54.7%

0.6%

53.5%

0.5%

52.6%

0.7%

51.4%

0.7%

50.0%

0.8%

49.1%

0.4%

49.0%

0.3%

47.7%

0.4%

41.9%

4.6%

41.1%

5.1%

38.6%

6.0%

36.3%

6.1%

35.6%

2.6%

Any 3 losses

2.3%

8.7%

5.3%

0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.8%

<0.1%

3.4%

0.8%

3.3%

1.0%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.1%

1.1%

3.0%

0.1%

2.8%

0.4%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

0.1%

1.9%

0.2%

1.7%

1.0%

1.6%

1.3%

1.5%

0.5%

1.4%

1.2%

0.6%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com