Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W44-26 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:42% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:23% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:9% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 96.8% |
| 6-2 | 2.7% | 48.5% |
| 5-3 | 14.5% | 2.6% |
| 4-4 | 34.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 35.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (-0.2%) | 2.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 3.7% (+1.9%) | 0.4% (-1.4%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.4%) | 1.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah StateHawai'i
UNLV
Wyoming
NevadaCCG: 5.6% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 3.7% • Scenario: 42.0%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.8%
0.2%Any 1 loss
48.6%
2.7%73.3%
0.2%
69.5%
0.2%
67.2%
0.5%
56.7%
0.3%35.6%
1.5%Any 2 losses
2.6%
14.5%6.0%
0.4%5.6%
0.2%4.3%
0.7%3.5%
2.1%2.9%
1.4%2.9%
0.4%2.5%
5.0%2.3%
1.0%2.1%
0.3%1.3%
3.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12