Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W10-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L6-31 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L20-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L17-31 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W35-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:38% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 86.0% |
| 6-2 | 4.0% | 27.2% |
| 5-3 | 16.7% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7% (+0.2%) | 1.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.6%) | 1.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 3.3% (+1.8%) | 0.5% (-1.1%) | |
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Hawai'i
UNLVWyoming
NevadaCCG: 6.1% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 3.3% • Scenario: 37.9%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
27.2%
4.0%37.5%
0.4%37.1%
0.2%
35.1%
0.6%
32.9%
0.2%
25.5%
1.5%
19.1%
1.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12