Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-43 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L23-30 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | L10-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L14-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W42-37 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W38-13 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W20-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:3% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:2% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:24% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:5% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| 6-3 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 38.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 52.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
Oregon
Purdue
Michigan
NorthwesternUCLA
WashingtonCCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IowaOregonMichiganUCLAWashingtonCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 1.4%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19