Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
41.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:87% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:76% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:85% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:32% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 6.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 24.8% | 93.2% |
| 7-2 | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| 6-3 | 23.5% | 1.1% |
| 5-4 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.5%Any 1 loss
94.1%
16.8%100.0%
1.2%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%99.6%
0.8%98.7%
0.6%97.6%
0.5%97.2%
0.8%95.5%
0.2%95.1%
1.1%92.1%
7.7%90.1%
2.9%Any 2 losses
53.1%
29.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.0%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
0.2%98.5%
0.1%97.7%
0.3%97.2%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.5%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.6%
0.3%92.5%
2.4%92.2%
1.1%92.1%
0.2%91.5%
0.9%89.7%
0.4%89.4%
1.0%88.8%
0.4%88.0%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%71.6%
0.1%71.4%
0.1%67.9%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.1%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
0.2%58.7%
0.1%58.1%
<0.1%56.8%
0.1%54.4%
0.2%54.1%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%48.9%
0.2%48.8%
0.5%45.8%
0.9%45.5%
1.8%45.0%
0.5%44.4%
1.4%44.0%
0.7%43.5%
0.3%43.3%
<0.1%43.2%
0.2%43.0%
0.1%38.4%
0.4%35.4%
1.7%35.0%
2.3%30.6%
0.7%29.2%
0.8%19.8%
6.3%Any 3 losses
25.8%
22.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%95.1%
0.3%94.7%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.5%
0.4%93.0%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.3%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.1%
0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
0.2%49.4%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.4%
0.3%47.3%
0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.3%
0.2%46.3%
0.2%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.5%
0.4%45.2%
<0.1%45.0%
0.1%44.4%
0.1%44.4%
0.2%44.3%
0.5%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%41.9%
0.2%40.7%
0.2%40.7%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%39.0%
0.3%38.5%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.4%
0.2%36.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.0%
0.4%34.4%
0.2%34.0%
0.6%33.3%
<0.1%33.2%
0.7%33.1%
0.3%32.9%
<0.1%31.7%
0.2%31.6%
0.3%27.3%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.4%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.6%
0.1%21.5%
0.9%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.7%18.8%
2.0%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.4%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.4%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.5%0.8%
0.5%0.8%
1.4%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
1.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
13.0%
6.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.9%
0.1%20.1%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23