Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:88% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:12% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:32% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:23% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 73.2% |
| 7-2 | 4.7% | 12.0% |
| 6-3 | 13.9% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 18.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
84.9%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
49.8%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.6%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.1%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
13.7%
3.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.9%
0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%12.6%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
0.3%10.3%
0.1%9.6%
0.2%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.5%
<0.1%7.8%
0.4%7.3%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.6%2.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
8.3%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23