Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:78% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:84% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:80% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:27% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:28% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.9% | 90.4% |
| 7-2 | 15.5% | 23.1% |
| 6-3 | 29.4% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
91.5%
2.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.8%
0.1%94.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
0.6%89.3%
0.7%89.1%
0.9%Any 2 losses
29.7%
11.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%89.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.6%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
0.2%85.3%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.0%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.2%39.3%
0.2%35.4%
0.1%34.6%
0.3%34.6%
0.1%34.2%
0.2%34.1%
0.1%34.1%
0.4%34.0%
0.2%33.8%
0.3%32.8%
0.3%32.5%
0.3%32.1%
0.4%30.6%
0.2%29.7%
0.2%29.7%
0.1%28.7%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%15.4%
2.1%15.3%
1.7%11.8%
2.3%Any 3 losses
16.7%
7.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.9%
0.2%16.8%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
0.6%15.4%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
0.5%13.0%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.7%11.8%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.6%0.5%
0.4%Any 4 losses
9.7%
1.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23