Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:97% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:89% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:19% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:23% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.7% | 99.9% |
| 8-1 | 6.7% | 67.2% |
| 7-2 | 22.7% | 7.2% |
| 6-3 | 32.1% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 24.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
67.9%
5.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.7%
<0.1%
85.0%
0.2%
84.6%
0.1%
83.8%
0.1%
82.3%
0.3%
82.2%
0.1%
81.0%
<0.1%
76.9%
0.1%
66.9%
1.8%
59.6%
2.3%Any 2 losses
11.8%
18.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%70.0%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%62.8%
0.3%62.1%
0.2%62.0%
<0.1%60.2%
0.3%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.8%
0.1%26.7%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%13.8%
0.7%13.5%
<0.1%13.1%
0.5%12.2%
0.3%12.2%
0.5%11.6%
0.4%10.6%
0.4%10.2%
0.4%9.8%
0.3%8.5%
0.9%8.2%
1.1%7.7%
0.7%7.6%
0.5%5.9%
1.4%5.2%
0.7%2.5%
7.7%Any 3 losses
7.2%
5.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
1.1%2.9%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%1.6%
0.9%1.4%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
6.4%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23