Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
56.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:63% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:97% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:89% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:96% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:73% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:92% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:97% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:68% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 17.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 38.2% | 85.9% |
| 7-2 | 30.6% | 21.6% |
| 6-3 | 11.7% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
9.8%Any 1 loss
89.2%
28.9%
100.0%
5.7%
100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
0.3%
96.9%
0.3%
96.1%
0.6%
95.8%
0.8%
94.8%
0.4%
94.5%
0.5%
93.4%
1.2%
91.8%
3.7%
86.9%
4.7%
80.1%
10.1%Any 2 losses
51.6%
33.0%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.2%
0.3%95.5%
0.3%95.1%
0.5%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.4%
0.7%92.7%
0.3%92.3%
2.2%88.2%
<0.1%88.1%
0.1%87.7%
0.3%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
0.2%86.8%
<0.1%85.8%
2.7%85.2%
0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.5%
0.3%81.4%
0.6%79.6%
5.7%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.4%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.4%
0.2%46.3%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.0%
0.2%41.9%
0.3%37.7%
0.2%36.9%
0.4%35.7%
<0.1%34.5%
0.2%33.1%
0.5%32.4%
0.3%31.9%
0.5%31.6%
0.4%29.1%
0.1%27.9%
0.4%27.0%
0.2%26.7%
0.9%26.3%
0.3%22.3%
0.6%19.7%
1.2%19.4%
1.7%18.1%
3.7%9.5%
4.7%Any 3 losses
24.9%
14.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.3%
0.2%84.9%
0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.4%
0.4%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.8%
0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.4%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.7%
0.2%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
0.2%32.4%
0.1%32.4%
<0.1%29.5%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
0.3%26.9%
0.3%26.8%
0.5%26.7%
<0.1%26.4%
0.3%26.1%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.2%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%23.7%
0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
1.0%22.0%
<0.1%20.3%
0.7%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
2.2%16.3%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.4%
0.2%9.7%
2.7%9.3%
0.3%8.9%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%Any 4 losses
10.9%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.7%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23