Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:96% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:32% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:93% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 24.0% | 94.2% |
| 7-2 | 32.0% | 49.2% |
| 6-3 | 22.9% | 3.6% |
| 5-4 | 10.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.1%Any 1 loss
96.7%
11.5%100.0%
4.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%95.4%
0.6%95.2%
0.1%95.0%
1.3%94.8%
1.3%94.6%
0.5%94.6%
0.4%93.8%
0.6%93.0%
0.3%92.9%
1.6%Any 2 losses
78.2%
24.6%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.1%
1.2%95.9%
2.7%95.7%
0.5%95.3%
1.0%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
0.9%93.7%
2.7%93.7%
0.3%93.6%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
3.5%92.7%
1.2%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
0.2%92.1%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.2%
0.2%89.5%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%62.5%
0.1%62.5%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
0.3%59.5%
<0.1%57.0%
0.3%56.7%
0.3%56.3%
0.3%56.0%
0.1%55.4%
0.1%54.9%
0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.8%
0.3%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%52.9%
0.1%52.7%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
0.1%49.8%
0.2%48.8%
0.4%48.1%
1.0%48.1%
0.3%48.0%
0.3%46.9%
0.5%46.5%
0.7%44.4%
0.1%43.4%
0.4%43.0%
0.1%41.4%
1.0%41.1%
0.5%39.9%
0.4%Any 3 losses
43.2%
28.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.8%
0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.1%
0.1%96.0%
0.3%96.0%
0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.6%
0.3%93.8%
0.2%93.7%
0.1%91.1%
0.4%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%88.8%
0.1%88.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.9%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%64.7%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.0%
0.3%60.6%
0.1%60.3%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.7%
0.6%57.8%
0.7%57.6%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
0.3%55.8%
0.2%55.6%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.5%
0.3%55.2%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.7%
0.6%54.6%
0.6%53.7%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.5%
0.3%52.4%
0.1%51.7%
0.5%50.7%
0.7%50.6%
0.1%50.4%
0.2%50.1%
0.8%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%49.0%
2.2%48.4%
1.7%48.1%
<0.1%48.0%
0.9%48.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
0.7%47.2%
0.3%46.8%
0.4%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
0.7%45.1%
0.3%44.1%
0.1%43.2%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
2.1%41.1%
0.7%40.3%
1.0%39.5%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.1%
0.1%36.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.3%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
0.6%1.4%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
12.5%
16.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.2%
0.1%55.9%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.8%
0.3%47.4%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.6%
0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.4%
0.2%42.3%
0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.6%
0.2%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.4%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.5%5.0%
0.3%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.5%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.2%3.8%
0.6%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.2%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
1.3%3.1%
0.4%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.5%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.4%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
0.6%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.7%
0.4%Data from 2024-08-23