Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:79% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:58% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:28% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:44% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:36% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:64% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:38% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.8% | 94.7% |
| 7-2 | 13.0% | 50.8% |
| 6-3 | 23.9% | 4.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.5%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.3%
0.2%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.2%
0.1%93.1%
<0.1%93.0%
0.2%Any 2 losses
72.5%
4.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
0.2%96.6%
0.1%96.2%
0.4%95.9%
0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.3%
0.3%95.2%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.7%
0.4%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.3%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.4%
0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%53.4%
0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.7%
0.2%46.9%
<0.1%46.4%
0.1%45.7%
<0.1%41.6%
0.2%39.8%
0.1%39.6%
<0.1%36.8%
0.3%Any 3 losses
36.9%
12.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.9%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.8%
0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
0.3%65.1%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.6%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
0.2%61.7%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.2%
<0.1%58.4%
0.1%58.3%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.4%
0.3%57.3%
0.2%56.9%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.0%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%52.3%
0.2%51.8%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.2%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.3%48.9%
0.2%48.3%
<0.1%47.8%
0.6%46.6%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.3%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%41.2%
0.2%41.2%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%38.3%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.3%
0.5%36.2%
0.7%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%Any 4 losses
12.4%
15.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.3%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%36.6%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
0.3%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.5%
0.3%6.4%
0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.2%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.9%
0.2%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.1%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
0.4%3.4%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.4%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.5%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.9%1.9%
0.4%1.8%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23