Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:76% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:42% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:54% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:78% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:38% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.5% | 94.6% |
| 7-2 | 12.0% | 43.7% |
| 6-3 | 24.0% | 2.3% |
| 5-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
95.7%
1.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
0.2%97.3%
<0.1%95.7%
0.3%95.1%
0.1%94.6%
0.2%93.1%
0.1%92.1%
0.3%Any 2 losses
58.4%
5.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
0.2%96.0%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.1%
0.1%93.8%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
0.3%90.2%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.4%
0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.1%
0.2%50.0%
0.2%49.0%
0.1%48.0%
0.1%47.3%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.1%
0.2%45.2%
<0.1%44.2%
0.4%43.5%
0.2%43.4%
<0.1%43.1%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%36.8%
0.2%34.5%
0.3%34.4%
<0.1%33.7%
0.4%31.8%
0.3%29.8%
0.2%Any 3 losses
22.4%
14.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%53.0%
0.2%52.6%
<0.1%52.2%
0.1%52.2%
0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.6%
0.1%46.6%
0.2%45.7%
<0.1%45.0%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.4%
0.3%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.6%
0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%41.6%
0.3%41.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.4%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.6%
0.3%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.0%
0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.2%
0.2%34.7%
0.1%34.6%
0.4%34.3%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
0.2%31.8%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
0.4%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.3%1.8%
0.2%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
0.6%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
0.5%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.3%Any 4 losses
9.3%
11.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%31.7%
0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
0.3%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.3%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.4%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23