Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:81% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:78% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:56% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:64% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 7.6% | 93.9% |
| 7-2 | 19.4% | 45.7% |
| 6-3 | 27.8% | 2.6% |
| 5-4 | 24.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
94.3%
4.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%96.7%
0.8%96.5%
0.6%96.0%
0.1%95.5%
0.5%95.1%
0.3%94.1%
0.4%93.9%
0.5%93.5%
0.2%87.5%
0.9%Any 2 losses
55.5%
14.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.5%
0.1%98.1%
0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.3%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.8%
0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.4%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.6%
<0.1%93.3%
0.1%93.2%
0.1%93.0%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.7%
<0.1%89.5%
0.2%88.8%
0.3%63.8%
0.3%63.4%
0.1%62.9%
0.1%62.5%
0.1%61.9%
0.2%61.4%
0.6%61.3%
<0.1%60.4%
0.2%59.7%
<0.1%59.1%
0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
0.1%57.9%
0.2%57.4%
0.4%57.1%
0.2%55.4%
0.5%55.2%
0.1%50.9%
0.3%49.5%
0.2%47.1%
0.4%46.8%
0.4%46.3%
0.4%46.1%
0.6%44.7%
0.4%40.6%
0.1%39.9%
0.2%39.9%
1.0%38.9%
0.3%38.9%
0.4%38.9%
0.1%37.1%
0.8%35.2%
0.2%34.2%
0.2%33.2%
0.6%32.1%
0.5%28.0%
0.7%Any 3 losses
18.0%
22.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
0.2%62.7%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.6%
0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.9%
0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
0.1%48.8%
0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.4%
0.1%43.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.1%
0.3%40.9%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.2%39.4%
<0.1%38.2%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.1%
0.2%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
0.1%35.7%
0.1%35.3%
0.2%34.9%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.6%
0.2%34.5%
0.1%34.4%
<0.1%34.2%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.6%
0.1%30.2%
0.2%28.7%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.6%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.6%
0.4%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
0.4%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
0.4%2.8%
0.4%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.4%2.1%
0.7%2.0%
0.4%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
0.7%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.8%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.5%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
0.6%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
10.9%
8.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23