Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:59% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:61% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:53% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:78% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:21% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:51% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.1% | 90.6% |
| 7-2 | 16.1% | 39.9% |
| 6-3 | 26.9% | 1.8% |
| 5-4 | 26.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
92.3%
1.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%96.9%
0.2%95.5%
0.2%93.9%
0.2%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.5%
0.7%Any 2 losses
56.3%
7.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.5%
0.1%96.6%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.5%
0.1%93.2%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.8%
0.1%91.8%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
0.5%87.5%
<0.1%84.7%
0.5%77.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.8%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%48.7%
0.1%48.1%
0.3%48.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
0.1%44.5%
0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
0.3%42.1%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.3%
0.1%38.9%
0.2%38.7%
0.2%38.5%
0.7%38.1%
0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%37.1%
0.7%31.8%
0.5%30.6%
0.1%29.4%
0.6%Any 3 losses
24.7%
16.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.5%
0.3%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.8%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.4%
0.2%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.7%
0.2%49.2%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.3%
0.2%46.0%
0.1%45.6%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.0%
0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.4%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
0.4%38.3%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.8%
0.2%37.7%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
0.4%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
0.1%35.8%
<0.1%35.7%
0.5%33.8%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.8%
0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.9%
0.5%31.8%
0.4%30.9%
0.4%30.6%
0.4%29.2%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.3%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
0.6%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.6%1.2%
0.6%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
11.2%
13.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%52.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.0%
0.1%41.8%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.6%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.3%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.3%
0.3%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
0.3%32.4%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.0%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.5%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.3%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-08-23