Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:19% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:37% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:56% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:27% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:44% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:36% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:26% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 87.2% |
| 7-2 | 1.3% | 34.9% |
| 6-3 | 5.8% | 1.4% |
| 5-4 | 14.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 17.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 6.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
72.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
44.1%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
19.2%
1.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23