Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-08-23
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 0-0 | 0-0 | 57.5% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-0 | 41.0% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 25.4% | |
| T1 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 25.3% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 23.9% | |
| T1 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 19.4% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3.9% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.3% | |
| T1 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1.3% | |
| T1 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 0-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 57.5%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.5% | 72.4% | 10.3% | <0.1% | 57.5% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 99.0% | 70.8% | 10.1% | <0.1% | 41.0% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 99.2% | 66.7% | 8.5% | <0.1% | 25.4% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | 100% | 98.4% | 64.2% | 7.9% | <0.1% | 25.3% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.4% | 70.7% | 9.6% | <0.1% | 23.9% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 98.8% | 67.7% | 8.6% | <0.1% | 19.4% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.1% | 74.4% | 11.2% | <0.1% | 3.9% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 98.4% | 67.3% | 8.4% | - | 2.3% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 100% | 69.8% | 10.5% | <0.1% | 1.3% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 100% | 84.6% | 12.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(0-0) | 7.4% | 24.2% | 32.7% | 23.5% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 3.4% | 14.9% | 28.2% | 28.4% | 17.3% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.3 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-0) | 1.2% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 30.5% | 24.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0) | 1.2% | 7.7% | 21.1% | 30.4% | 24.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 0.9% | 6.5% | 19.4% | 29.6% | 25.7% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.7% | 5.1% | 16.7% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 16.2% | 5.6% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 11.1% | 23.8% | 30.2% | 22.1% | 8.2% | 1.2% | 3.1 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 8.2% | 20.3% | 30.1% | 25.8% | 11.3% | 2.0% | 2.9 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 15.8% | 28.7% | 30.2% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 2.6 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 10.1% | 26.9% | 38.3% | 22.1% | 1.3 |
Data from 2024-08-23