Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:14% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:68% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:22% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:64% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:46% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:35% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.1% | 98.8% |
| 6-2 | 16.7% | 67.7% |
| 5-3 | 27.7% | 8.6% |
| 4-4 | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 16.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
95.1%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
84.2%
4.0%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.7%
0.2%98.6%
0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.9%
0.1%97.7%
0.3%96.7%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
62.3%
11.0%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.5%98.5%
0.3%98.4%
0.3%98.1%
0.6%96.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.4%
0.1%80.9%
0.2%80.5%
<0.1%80.3%
0.1%79.6%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.5%
0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.7%
0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.2%70.9%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%67.2%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.7%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.3%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
0.3%57.6%
0.4%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
0.1%54.5%
0.3%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.5%
0.2%50.4%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%47.7%
0.2%47.1%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23