Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
57.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:62% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:91% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:41% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:95% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 24.2% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 32.7% | 72.4% |
| 5-3 | 23.5% | 10.3% |
| 4-4 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
32.5%
18.2%
18.2%
17.5%
13.6%
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.9%Any 1 loss
99.6%
10.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
2.8%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%99.7%
1.0%99.4%
0.7%99.3%
1.2%99.2%
1.6%99.2%
1.2%Any 2 losses
89.1%
22.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.7%
1.8%99.6%
1.4%99.6%
1.7%99.5%
1.0%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.0%
2.4%99.0%
0.2%98.6%
<0.1%98.5%
0.1%98.4%
0.2%95.5%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.5%
0.1%90.4%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
0.1%86.9%
0.1%85.5%
0.2%85.2%
0.2%85.0%
0.1%84.4%
0.1%83.8%
0.3%75.8%
0.4%73.3%
0.6%70.7%
0.4%69.8%
0.4%69.5%
0.7%68.6%
0.8%67.5%
0.7%64.3%
1.1%62.6%
0.9%62.0%
0.6%Any 3 losses
63.8%
27.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
0.6%99.4%
0.2%99.4%
0.5%99.4%
0.5%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.2%98.3%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%98.1%
0.2%97.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.3%88.9%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
0.2%88.3%
0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.5%
0.2%86.3%
0.2%86.1%
<0.1%86.1%
0.3%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
0.1%85.3%
0.3%85.2%
<0.1%84.8%
0.3%84.5%
0.4%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.6%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
0.1%74.7%
0.9%73.8%
0.2%73.2%
<0.1%72.9%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
0.1%72.2%
0.2%72.2%
0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.7%
0.5%71.3%
0.6%71.1%
0.1%71.0%
0.2%70.1%
0.9%69.5%
1.2%69.4%
<0.1%68.8%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%68.0%
1.1%67.9%
0.6%67.4%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
1.4%65.0%
0.9%64.9%
0.3%64.3%
0.2%63.8%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
1.4%61.2%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.3%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.1%
0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.2%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
0.3%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.5%8.7%
0.4%8.6%
0.4%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.5%8.4%
0.2%8.1%
0.2%7.8%
0.2%7.3%
0.4%7.2%
0.3%5.5%
0.6%Any 4 losses
34.9%
19.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.7%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.2%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.9%
0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
0.2%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%73.9%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%72.9%
0.2%72.2%
<0.1%71.9%
0.3%71.5%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
0.3%70.8%
0.2%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.7%
0.1%68.7%
<0.1%68.2%
0.1%68.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%67.3%
0.4%67.2%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.2%65.8%
0.3%65.4%
<0.1%65.1%
0.4%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.5%
0.2%64.0%
0.1%63.5%
0.2%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.7%
0.3%13.7%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.3%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.4%
0.8%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.6%7.9%
0.9%7.9%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.4%7.4%
0.7%7.3%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.9%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.5%4.7%
0.5%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23