Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
41.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:26% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:56% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:34% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:45% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.9% | 99.0% |
| 6-2 | 28.2% | 70.8% |
| 5-3 | 28.4% | 10.1% |
| 4-4 | 17.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
99.5%
1.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%96.8%
0.2%Any 2 losses
94.1%
6.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.4%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%98.8%
0.3%98.6%
0.1%98.5%
<0.1%97.9%
0.5%97.7%
0.4%93.3%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.6%
0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%57.8%
0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
79.4%
15.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.7%
0.3%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.3%
0.3%99.2%
0.5%99.2%
0.5%99.1%
0.7%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.2%98.9%
1.0%98.9%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.3%
0.3%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
0.4%96.3%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.9%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.7%
0.1%83.6%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.7%
0.2%82.6%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.3%
0.1%80.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%78.5%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.9%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.7%
0.2%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.7%
0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
0.2%74.1%
0.3%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
0.1%73.1%
0.2%72.9%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.7%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%66.9%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
0.2%65.4%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%57.0%
0.2%56.8%
0.3%56.3%
<0.1%56.2%
0.1%55.0%
0.4%55.0%
0.2%54.0%
0.2%52.5%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.3%49.4%
<0.1%45.8%
0.3%45.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
57.2%
22.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.5%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
0.4%98.3%
0.4%98.2%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.3%
0.7%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.7%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.0%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.6%
0.1%84.8%
0.1%84.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
0.2%83.1%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.0%
0.2%81.5%
0.3%81.0%
<0.1%80.4%
0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.3%
0.4%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.3%79.2%
<0.1%79.1%
0.2%79.1%
<0.1%78.7%
0.2%78.2%
0.1%77.9%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%76.6%
<0.1%76.6%
0.2%76.4%
0.1%76.0%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
0.5%74.7%
0.2%74.7%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%73.0%
0.4%72.7%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.0%
0.4%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.2%65.7%
0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.7%
0.1%63.9%
0.4%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
0.3%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
0.3%61.9%
<0.1%61.3%
0.8%60.8%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.3%57.3%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.7%
0.6%52.2%
0.2%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
0.5%49.1%
0.2%45.0%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.0%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23