Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:1% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:32% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:25% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/16 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:28% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:15% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 99.1% |
| 6-2 | 3.0% | 74.4% |
| 5-3 | 11.1% | 11.2% |
| 4-4 | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 30.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
100.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
84.9%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
54.8%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23