Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:44% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:46% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:44% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 5.5% | 75.4% |
| 6-2 | 16.7% | 44.6% |
| 5-3 | 27.8% | 18.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.5% | 2.6% |
| 3-5 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
81.6%
0.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%37.2%
0.1%Any 2 losses
66.5%
3.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%89.8%
0.1%86.6%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%51.1%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.0%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.5%
0.2%43.9%
0.1%34.0%
0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
0.1%33.0%
0.1%32.0%
0.2%28.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
51.6%
9.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.5%
0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
0.2%44.3%
0.1%43.8%
0.2%43.5%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.2%
0.1%41.9%
0.1%41.4%
0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%39.2%
0.2%37.9%
0.2%37.8%
0.1%35.3%
0.1%35.2%
0.2%34.9%
0.1%34.9%
0.2%33.9%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%29.3%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
38.5%
13.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.6%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.3%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.8%
0.1%89.3%
0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.3%
0.2%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.0%
0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.7%
0.2%47.6%
0.2%47.6%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.6%
0.2%45.8%
0.3%45.5%
0.1%43.1%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.1%42.1%
<0.1%42.1%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.0%
0.2%40.6%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.2%39.6%
0.2%39.4%
<0.1%38.8%
0.1%38.7%
0.3%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.2%
0.3%38.2%
0.1%37.9%
0.1%37.6%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.2%37.1%
0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%Data from 2024-08-23