Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:7% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:84% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:70% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:64% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:50% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.7% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 11.0% | 60.3% |
| 5-3 | 24.0% | 4.9% |
| 4-4 | 29.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 21.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.3%Any 2 losses
88.1%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.3%
0.4%97.8%
0.1%97.0%
0.3%95.1%
0.3%92.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
60.2%
7.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.9%
0.1%78.1%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
0.2%73.4%
<0.1%72.7%
0.3%69.5%
0.3%68.1%
<0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.5%
0.3%63.4%
<0.1%62.8%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%61.7%
0.3%61.5%
<0.1%60.6%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
0.8%57.4%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
0.7%40.9%
0.6%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
19.6%
16.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.2%
0.2%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.3%
0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%60.1%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.8%
0.1%57.6%
<0.1%56.5%
0.1%56.2%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%45.1%
0.3%44.9%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.1%37.4%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.4%7.7%
0.2%7.6%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
0.8%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%4.9%
0.1%4.5%
0.3%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
0.4%4.2%
0.3%4.1%
0.6%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.8%
0.6%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.0%
0.8%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.1%
1.5%2.0%
0.6%2.0%
0.3%1.7%
0.6%Data from 2024-08-23