Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
28.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:54% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:40% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:21% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:89% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/06 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 10.6% | 97.9% |
| 6-2 | 25.8% | 58.2% |
| 5-3 | 31.1% | 4.5% |
| 4-4 | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.8%
0.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%96.8%
0.1%95.3%
0.1%Any 2 losses
89.9%
4.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
0.3%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
0.4%98.4%
0.2%98.1%
0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.7%
0.5%97.0%
0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.0%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%39.8%
0.2%Any 3 losses
70.2%
12.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.4%
0.3%98.4%
0.2%98.2%
0.4%97.9%
<0.1%97.8%
0.4%97.8%
0.6%97.6%
0.1%97.6%
0.1%97.4%
0.4%97.2%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.3%
0.8%95.0%
0.2%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.1%
0.2%64.9%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.5%
0.2%63.5%
<0.1%63.1%
0.1%63.1%
0.3%62.7%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.4%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
0.1%56.6%
0.3%56.4%
0.2%55.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
0.2%54.5%
<0.1%52.7%
0.6%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%45.1%
0.2%44.3%
0.3%40.8%
0.8%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%1.4%
0.1%Any 4 losses
44.7%
21.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.8%
0.3%98.4%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.1%
0.7%96.9%
0.5%96.6%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.1%
0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.9%
0.2%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%66.0%
0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.4%
0.2%65.3%
0.2%65.0%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.8%
0.2%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
0.1%62.1%
0.1%60.4%
0.4%60.0%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.3%59.7%
<0.1%58.6%
0.2%58.4%
0.7%58.1%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.5%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
0.5%54.6%
0.8%54.5%
<0.1%54.1%
0.4%54.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.3%
0.7%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.8%
0.3%41.8%
1.2%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.2%
0.5%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.8%1.8%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23