Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
48.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:53% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 19.0% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 30.1% | 73.9% |
| 5-3 | 26.4% | 11.1% |
| 4-4 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.6%Any 1 loss
99.8%
8.4%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
1.4%100.0%
0.1%99.8%
1.4%99.8%
0.8%99.8%
0.4%99.6%
0.8%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
1.0%99.6%
0.7%99.6%
0.7%Any 2 losses
87.6%
19.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.7%99.7%
0.6%99.7%
0.9%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.5%
1.2%99.5%
0.4%99.4%
0.5%99.3%
0.1%99.3%
0.3%99.2%
0.7%99.2%
0.6%99.1%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.6%
0.2%88.9%
0.1%87.2%
0.1%85.4%
0.2%83.4%
0.2%83.0%
0.1%82.3%
0.2%82.2%
0.5%81.8%
0.3%81.7%
0.3%80.6%
0.3%78.5%
0.8%78.3%
0.5%78.2%
0.4%77.4%
0.3%77.4%
0.4%76.7%
0.3%76.2%
0.2%75.7%
0.2%75.6%
0.4%68.5%
0.7%68.3%
0.6%65.6%
0.8%64.4%
0.4%63.7%
0.4%61.1%
0.5%Any 3 losses
57.3%
25.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.5%99.4%
0.3%99.3%
0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.3%99.2%
0.3%99.0%
0.3%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%89.3%
0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
0.2%86.8%
0.1%86.3%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%86.1%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.6%
0.1%85.3%
0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.9%
0.3%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.3%
0.1%80.1%
0.2%80.0%
0.3%80.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
0.4%79.5%
<0.1%79.3%
0.2%78.9%
0.4%78.8%
0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.4%
0.2%78.0%
0.3%77.3%
0.1%77.1%
0.3%76.6%
0.2%76.5%
0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.3%
0.3%76.3%
0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
0.3%76.0%
0.4%75.1%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.9%
0.2%74.7%
<0.1%74.7%
0.6%74.2%
<0.1%73.3%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.5%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
0.2%68.9%
0.3%68.8%
<0.1%68.7%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.5%
0.6%64.4%
0.5%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
0.7%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
0.3%63.5%
0.2%62.6%
0.3%62.3%
0.4%62.0%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.7%
0.4%60.4%
0.2%59.6%
<0.1%59.3%
0.4%58.5%
0.2%57.5%
<0.1%57.3%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%19.6%
0.1%18.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
0.1%16.2%
0.1%16.0%
0.3%15.7%
0.1%15.4%
0.2%15.2%
<0.1%15.1%
0.2%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
0.4%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.6%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
0.3%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.1%
0.1%9.9%
0.2%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.3%
0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.7%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%8.1%
0.3%7.8%
0.3%7.0%
0.3%6.4%
0.4%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
0.1%6.2%
0.3%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
0.4%5.7%
0.4%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%Any 4 losses
33.5%
18.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.0%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.2%82.4%
0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
0.1%81.2%
0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.6%
0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
0.1%78.3%
0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.2%
<0.1%78.1%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%73.1%
0.3%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.8%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.8%
0.3%63.8%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.0%
0.2%63.0%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.8%
<0.1%60.4%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%51.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
0.3%15.9%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.5%
0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.5%
0.3%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.3%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.6%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.8%
0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.8%
0.2%8.8%
0.2%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
0.2%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.3%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.7%
0.4%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.4%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23