Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:94% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:96% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:43% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.1% | 99.0% |
| 7-1 | 10.9% | 50.4% |
| 6-2 | 28.6% | 2.5% |
| 5-3 | 33.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 19.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.8%
0.8%Any 1 loss
52.5%
8.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.9%
<0.1%
76.6%
<0.1%
74.1%
0.4%
70.8%
0.2%
68.6%
0.1%
60.9%
0.2%
59.2%
0.8%
57.0%
1.1%
44.1%
4.9%Any 2 losses
8.6%
23.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.7%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.5%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%50.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.2%
0.7%45.2%
0.2%44.6%
0.5%42.9%
<0.1%41.0%
0.4%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.7%
0.1%15.6%
0.1%14.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.2%
0.4%6.9%
0.2%5.7%
0.2%4.7%
<0.1%4.4%
1.2%4.2%
0.5%3.7%
1.2%3.5%
1.0%3.5%
0.7%3.4%
2.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
0.2%2.2%
0.3%2.0%
0.3%1.8%
4.5%0.6%
6.5%Any 3 losses
6.5%
4.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.5%
0.3%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.6%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.3%1.3%
0.5%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
7.2%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23