Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:24% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:50% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:28% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:59% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:21% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 1.6% | 92.9% |
| 5-2 | 8.2% | 29.2% |
| 4-3 | 21.9% | 0.3% |
| 3-4 | 31.5% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 24.8% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.0% (+0.0%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.4% (+0.4%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.1%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 4.4% • Scenario: 9.9%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
82.5%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
61.3%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
45.3%
2.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.3%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23