Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | Win prob:89% | |
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:68% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:51% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:87% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:54% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 25.1% | 91.6% |
| 6-2 | 33.0% | 30.2% |
| 5-3 | 22.6% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 40.6% (-0.0%) | 40.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 41.1% (+0.5%) | 39.9% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 41.5% • Scenario: 6.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 41.1% • Scenario: 57.3%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
99.9%
3.8%Any 1 loss
93.1%
15.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
1.5%99.8%
0.6%94.9%
0.8%94.3%
0.9%93.5%
0.9%93.2%
1.8%93.1%
0.6%92.0%
0.6%91.3%
3.2%88.7%
3.7%Any 2 losses
54.5%
27.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%97.8%
0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%96.7%
0.1%96.5%
0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.6%
0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.7%
0.2%94.7%
0.2%94.6%
0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.6%
0.2%93.4%
0.4%93.2%
0.3%92.6%
0.3%92.5%
1.3%92.3%
0.3%91.9%
0.4%91.6%
<0.1%91.5%
0.7%91.3%
0.4%90.6%
0.2%90.6%
0.5%90.2%
0.5%90.1%
<0.1%90.0%
0.4%88.8%
1.5%88.3%
0.6%87.8%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%56.2%
<0.1%52.5%
0.1%47.7%
0.2%45.8%
0.1%45.7%
0.2%43.9%
0.1%41.9%
0.1%41.5%
0.2%40.7%
0.1%39.3%
0.1%38.1%
0.8%35.7%
0.3%35.3%
0.3%34.4%
0.4%33.9%
0.6%33.7%
0.6%32.3%
0.6%32.1%
0.4%31.9%
0.5%31.8%
0.8%31.4%
0.9%30.3%
0.4%30.3%
0.7%30.2%
0.4%29.3%
0.7%24.4%
1.7%23.3%
3.3%23.2%
1.5%Any 3 losses
37.4%
16.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.6%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.4%
0.2%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%91.8%
0.2%91.5%
0.1%91.4%
0.2%90.9%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.6%
0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.9%
0.2%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
0.2%85.2%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.0%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%38.2%
<0.1%38.0%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.5%
0.1%36.4%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
0.2%35.2%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.7%
0.2%34.5%
0.2%34.5%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.5%
0.3%34.3%
0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
0.3%32.8%
0.2%32.3%
0.3%32.3%
<0.1%32.1%
0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.7%
0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.4%
0.1%31.3%
0.2%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.2%
0.2%30.2%
0.3%30.2%
0.2%30.0%
0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.5%
0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%29.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
0.1%27.4%
<0.1%26.6%
0.2%26.4%
<0.1%26.2%
0.7%25.9%
0.2%25.7%
0.3%24.8%
0.1%24.6%
0.3%24.4%
0.4%24.0%
0.1%24.0%
0.2%23.5%
0.4%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.3%
1.3%21.8%
0.2%21.7%
0.4%20.7%
0.6%20.2%
0.2%19.6%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
26.4%
4.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.7%
0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.3%
0.2%24.2%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.3%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23