Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:62% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:74% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 3.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 17.2% | 95.8% |
| 5-2 | 31.3% | 37.1% |
| 4-3 | 28.7% | 0.4% |
| 3-4 | 14.5% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 32.0% (+0.0%) | 31.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 31.1% (-0.8%) | 32.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.4% (+0.5%) | 31.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 33.9% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 32.1% • Scenario: 79.8%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
98.0%
1.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.1%
0.3%98.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%94.4%
0.1%91.6%
0.2%Any 2 losses
85.2%
7.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%97.8%
0.6%97.3%
0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.7%
0.4%96.6%
0.2%95.5%
0.4%94.8%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.2%
0.5%91.7%
<0.1%91.1%
0.4%89.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%47.1%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%30.7%
0.2%25.9%
0.2%22.9%
0.3%Any 3 losses
66.3%
15.6%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.3%98.7%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.1%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.7%
0.4%97.6%
<0.1%97.5%
1.0%97.4%
<0.1%97.3%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%96.6%
0.3%96.4%
<0.1%96.4%
0.5%95.7%
<0.1%95.6%
0.2%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
0.2%94.5%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.3%
0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.0%
0.1%90.5%
0.9%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.5%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%87.4%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.5%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
0.1%55.8%
<0.1%54.3%
0.1%53.7%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.9%
0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
0.2%47.5%
0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.4%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.7%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%43.5%
0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.3%
<0.1%42.0%
0.2%41.5%
<0.1%41.1%
0.1%40.3%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
0.1%38.9%
0.2%37.0%
0.1%37.0%
<0.1%34.9%
0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.1%30.3%
0.5%29.7%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.8%
0.4%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
0.8%27.2%
0.3%26.7%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
0.5%21.9%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
0.3%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
49.1%
18.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.9%
0.3%98.3%
0.2%97.8%
0.2%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
0.1%95.7%
0.3%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
0.6%95.1%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.9%
0.5%93.7%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.9%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%87.6%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.3%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%51.0%
<0.1%51.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%49.0%
0.2%48.9%
<0.1%48.5%
0.1%48.4%
0.4%48.3%
0.2%47.5%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%45.7%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
0.4%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
0.2%44.3%
0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.3%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%41.3%
0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
0.4%39.1%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.5%
0.3%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.1%
0.3%29.0%
0.1%28.9%
0.3%28.8%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%27.9%
0.7%27.8%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.1%
0.1%26.7%
0.5%26.5%
0.2%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.1%23.8%
0.7%23.2%
1.2%22.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
0.2%20.7%
0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.2%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23