Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:27% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:12% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:52% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:56% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 25.0% | 90.0% |
| 6-2 | 32.6% | 28.0% |
| 5-3 | 22.6% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
98.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.8%
<0.1%
97.7%
<0.1%
96.6%
<0.1%
95.5%
<0.1%
89.8%
0.1%
81.6%
0.1%Any 2 losses
90.6%
8.4%100.0%
2.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%94.2%
0.1%93.8%
0.4%93.2%
0.7%93.2%
0.2%92.2%
0.2%92.1%
0.2%91.3%
0.3%90.9%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.8%
0.3%88.5%
0.2%83.7%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%83.1%
0.7%78.9%
0.2%57.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
74.3%
19.7%100.0%
2.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.2%
0.1%95.2%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.8%
0.4%94.5%
0.4%94.5%
0.1%94.4%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.6%
0.4%93.3%
0.1%93.2%
0.4%93.2%
1.1%92.9%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.0%
0.3%92.0%
1.0%91.7%
<0.1%91.4%
0.7%90.4%
1.8%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.8%
0.8%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.3%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.1%
<0.1%83.4%
0.2%83.2%
1.8%83.1%
0.6%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.4%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.2%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.8%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.6%
0.1%35.1%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.4%
0.3%31.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.8%
0.3%29.7%
<0.1%29.3%
0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.9%
0.1%27.6%
0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.0%
0.3%25.4%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.8%
0.1%23.4%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
0.2%21.9%
<0.1%21.3%
0.2%21.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.5%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
49.1%
23.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%94.6%
0.9%94.4%
<0.1%93.7%
1.0%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.2%
0.4%93.1%
0.4%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.4%
0.1%91.0%
1.7%90.1%
0.7%90.0%
0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.1%
0.2%87.9%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
0.2%82.5%
1.6%80.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
0.1%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.1%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%43.0%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.2%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.8%
0.4%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.3%
0.2%34.8%
0.1%34.7%
0.3%34.4%
<0.1%34.1%
0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.3%32.4%
0.1%32.3%
0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.9%
0.3%31.8%
0.8%31.6%
<0.1%30.9%
0.8%30.7%
0.3%30.2%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
0.3%29.6%
0.4%29.5%
0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.3%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
0.1%27.8%
0.1%27.6%
<0.1%26.4%
0.1%26.3%
0.3%25.7%
0.3%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
0.1%24.6%
0.8%24.2%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.4%
0.3%23.4%
0.8%22.8%
0.7%22.8%
<0.1%22.6%
0.1%21.1%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
0.6%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
0.2%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.5%
1.5%15.4%
<0.1%14.6%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.5%12.2%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23