Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
37.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:92% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:51% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:53% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:95% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:84% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:47% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:75% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 26.4% | 64.0% |
| 6-2 | 33.4% | 30.7% |
| 5-3 | 21.9% | 10.1% |
| 4-4 | 8.2% | 1.5% |
| 3-5 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.8%Any 1 loss
77.6%
9.6%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
1.7%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
1.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%80.8%
0.7%78.1%
0.4%57.5%
1.2%31.6%
2.1%Any 2 losses
56.5%
21.7%100.0%
1.6%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.2%
0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%85.4%
0.3%85.1%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.2%
0.1%82.0%
0.6%81.6%
0.7%77.9%
0.3%75.6%
0.4%70.8%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%58.0%
1.1%55.8%
0.4%53.0%
1.0%53.0%
0.5%51.2%
0.1%49.6%
0.1%48.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
0.7%34.3%
0.8%33.5%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
1.7%32.4%
2.1%30.5%
0.2%29.6%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%18.1%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%5.9%
0.4%4.3%
0.2%2.1%
0.4%1.7%
0.8%0.9%
1.3%Any 3 losses
39.4%
25.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.0%
0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.2%
0.3%85.2%
0.2%85.0%
0.2%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.1%82.5%
0.3%82.4%
<0.1%82.0%
0.6%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
0.3%77.8%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%76.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.8%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%58.6%
0.3%57.5%
0.4%57.3%
1.0%56.3%
0.1%56.1%
0.1%55.5%
0.1%55.4%
0.5%52.8%
0.1%52.4%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%41.2%
<0.1%37.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.9%
0.2%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
0.8%35.5%
<0.1%34.8%
0.6%33.5%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
1.7%33.0%
0.2%32.4%
0.8%32.3%
0.1%32.2%
0.6%30.9%
<0.1%30.7%
0.2%30.5%
0.3%30.4%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.2%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%5.8%
0.4%5.6%
<0.1%4.9%
0.4%4.9%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.2%3.6%
0.1%3.1%
0.8%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.4%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
0.3%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.7%2.0%
0.2%1.3%
1.3%0.9%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
1.1%0.7%
0.4%Any 4 losses
26.8%
17.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%85.7%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.1%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.7%
0.2%81.6%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%72.9%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.5%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%59.1%
0.3%57.3%
0.5%55.7%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
0.2%51.8%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
0.2%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%36.8%
0.6%36.2%
0.8%35.9%
0.2%35.0%
0.2%34.8%
0.3%34.3%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.4%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
0.3%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.4%
0.7%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.4%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
1.1%0.8%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-08-23