Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:49% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:37% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:92% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:36% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:86% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.2% | 99.2% |
| 6-2 | 30.9% | 58.1% |
| 5-3 | 29.0% | 3.7% |
| 4-4 | 15.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.4%Any 1 loss
99.6%
3.3%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.1%
0.8%99.0%
0.5%Any 2 losses
85.7%
11.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
0.3%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.3%
1.3%99.2%
0.6%98.9%
0.2%98.7%
0.9%98.6%
0.8%98.6%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.1%
0.1%68.9%
0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.8%
0.3%64.1%
<0.1%63.0%
0.3%62.7%
0.1%62.4%
0.3%61.0%
0.3%58.7%
0.2%52.4%
0.3%39.8%
1.0%Any 3 losses
61.5%
22.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
0.3%99.1%
1.4%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.7%
0.3%98.6%
0.9%98.3%
0.2%98.2%
0.1%97.8%
0.1%97.2%
0.2%96.4%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%76.5%
0.1%76.4%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%72.9%
0.1%72.8%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.2%
0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.6%
0.3%68.4%
0.1%68.2%
0.1%67.8%
0.3%67.6%
<0.1%66.9%
0.4%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.5%65.4%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%65.2%
0.3%65.2%
0.2%64.9%
<0.1%64.6%
0.2%64.6%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
0.4%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.3%61.9%
<0.1%61.7%
0.1%61.7%
0.5%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
0.3%60.7%
0.7%60.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%51.8%
0.4%50.2%
0.5%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.7%
0.2%46.8%
0.3%45.4%
0.1%44.2%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%41.4%
1.8%41.0%
1.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.4%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.5%
0.4%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
36.6%
23.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.4%98.6%
0.1%97.8%
0.3%96.3%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.7%
0.2%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
0.3%73.9%
0.1%73.9%
0.2%73.0%
<0.1%71.4%
0.4%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.2%
0.1%69.3%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.1%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.5%
0.3%65.3%
0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%64.7%
0.6%64.6%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%63.7%
0.5%63.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%61.9%
0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
0.7%58.5%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.1%
0.1%55.6%
0.1%55.6%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
0.2%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
0.4%52.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.2%
0.1%48.0%
0.5%47.6%
<0.1%47.1%
0.1%44.2%
0.1%42.3%
0.4%41.7%
<0.1%40.5%
1.8%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.9%
0.2%37.0%
0.3%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.4%3.8%
0.4%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.8%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.8%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.2%
0.5%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
0.4%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
0.7%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23