Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 9.9% | 46.6% |
| 7-2 | 32.6% | 5.8% |
| 6-3 | 37.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 17.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 3.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.9% (+3.3%) | 5.8% (-0.7%) | |
| 6.8% (+0.3%) | 6.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.0%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (-0.5%) | 11.4% (+4.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas Tech
Baylor
Arizona State
UCF
HoustonCCG: 25.9% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas TechCCG: 9.9% • Scenario: 17.4%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
46.6%
9.9%Any 1 loss
5.7%
32.6%
10.8%
3.7%6.8%
10.6%
4.7%
6.2%
3.8%
12.2%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27