Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W19-13 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-14 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L23-34 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:16% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:14% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.7% | 67.1% |
| 6-3 | 9.6% | 2.4% |
| 5-4 | 36.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 39.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% (+0.3%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas Tech
TCU
Oklahoma State
UCF
HoustonCCG: 3.8% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas TechCCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 17.4%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
67.1%
0.7%Any 1 loss
2.4%
9.6%7.6%
0.5%
4.7%
0.6%
2.7%
3.9%
1.2%
4.5%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27