Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W45-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L34-35 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L42-66 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W38-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L19-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W13-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W35-34 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:38% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 5.9% | 8.9% |
| 6-3 | 25.6% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 38.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% (+0.5%) | 0.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.5% (+0.9%) | 0.0% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas TechTCU
Oklahoma State
Arizona
HoustonCCG: 6.9% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 38.0%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
8.9%
5.9%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27