Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
81.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W18-15 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-9 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W34-28 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-35 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W37-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 21.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 42.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 28.1% | 61.0% |
| 6-3 | 7.2% | 3.6% |
| 5-4 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 82.9% (+1.3%) | 81.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 80.3% (-1.3%) | 82.4% (+0.8%) | |
| 81.6% (+0.0%) | 81.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 81.4% (-0.2%) | 81.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.0% (-0.6%) | 87.6% (+6.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas Tech
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Arizona
HoustonCCG: 92.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 87.6% • Scenario: 8.9%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
21.8%Any 1 loss
100.0%
42.4%Any 2 losses
61.0%
28.1%
70.0%
8.4%69.3%
1.2%64.5%
1.7%
62.0%
6.6%55.8%
1.3%51.0%
8.9%Any 3 losses
3.6%
7.3%4.7%
0.9%4.4%
1.0%4.1%
0.7%3.2%
4.8%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27