Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27
Conference Standings
| T1 |  BYUBYU | 5-0 | 8-0 | 81.6% | |
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 4-0 | 7-0 | 59.5% | |
| T3 |  Kansas StateKSU | 4-1 | 7-1 | 49.0% | |
| T3 |  ColoradoCOLO | 4-1 | 6-2 | 6.5% | |
| T5 |  Texas TechTTU | 3-2 | 5-3 | 1.3% | |
| T5 |  CincinnatiCIN | 3-2 | 5-3 | 0.7% | |
| T5 |  TCUTCU | 3-2 | 5-3 | 0.6% | |
| T5 |  West VirginiaWVU | 3-2 | 4-4 | 0.4% | |
| 9 |  Arizona StateASU | 2-2 | 5-2 | 0.4% | |
| T10 |  BaylorBAY | 2-3 | 4-4 | <0.1% | |
| T10 |  HoustonHOU | 2-3 | 3-5 | - | |
| T12 |  ArizonaARIZ | 1-4 | 3-5 | - | |
| T12 |  KansasKU | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| T12 |  UCFUCF | 1-4 | 3-5 | - | |
| T12 |  UtahUTAH | 1-4 | 4-4 | - | |
| 16 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-5 | 3-5 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 81.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 82.9% (+1.3%) | 81.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 80.3% (-1.3%) | 82.4% (+0.8%) | |
| 81.6% (+0.0%) | 81.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 81.4% (-0.2%) | 81.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 81.0% (-0.6%) | 87.6% (+6.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas TechBaylorOklahoma StateArizonaHoustonCCG: 92.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 87.6% • Scenario: 8.9%
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYUBYU | 100% | 100% | 61.0% | 3.6% | 81.6% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 82.3% | 31.3% | 1.1% | 59.5% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | 99.9% | 34.3% | 3.1% | 49.0% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 46.6% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 6.5% |
| Texas TechTTU | - | - | 41.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | - | 67.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| TCUTCU | - | - | 8.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | 4.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Arizona StateASU | - | - | 58.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| BaylorBAY | - | - | - | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | - | - | - | - |
| HoustonHOU | - | - | - | 4.3% | - |
| KansasKU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | - | - |
| UCFUCF | - | - | - | - | - |
| UtahUTAH | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-27
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYUBYU(5-0) | 21.8% | 42.4% | 28.1% | 7.2% | 0.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.8 |
| Iowa StateISU(4-0) | 18.2% | 38.6% | 30.3% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | 7.6 |
| Kansas StateKSU(4-1) | - | 31.4% | 50.0% | 16.5% | 2.1% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | 7.1 |
| ColoradoCOLO(4-1) | - | 9.9% | 32.6% | 37.1% | 17.4% | 3.0% | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| West VirginiaWVU(3-2) | - | - | 6.9% | 26.8% | 38.6% | 22.8% | 4.9% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| TCUTCU(3-2) | - | - | 5.9% | 25.6% | 38.7% | 24.4% | 5.4% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Texas TechTTU(3-2) | - | - | 2.9% | 20.3% | 39.3% | 29.9% | 7.6% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| CincinnatiCIN(3-2) | - | - | 0.7% | 9.6% | 36.9% | 39.8% | 13.1% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| BaylorBAY(2-3) | - | - | - | 9.2% | 31.1% | 37.7% | 18.7% | 3.3% | - | - | 4.2 |
| Arizona StateASU(2-2) | - | - | 0.5% | 6.2% | 23.0% | 36.9% | 26.4% | 7.0% | - | - | 4.0 |
| ArizonaARIZ(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 8.8% | 31.4% | 38.9% | 18.3% | 2.8% | - | 3.3 |
| KansasKU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 3.2% | 18.8% | 37.4% | 31.1% | 9.4% | - | 2.8 |
| UCFUCF(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 3.4% | 18.2% | 36.8% | 31.5% | 10.0% | - | 2.7 |
| HoustonHOU(2-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.3% | 11.4% | 40.1% | 47.1% | - | - | 2.7 |
| UtahUTAH(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.5% | 15.8% | 36.0% | 33.7% | 11.9% | - | 2.6 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 2.2% | 15.3% | 36.0% | 34.8% | 11.7% | 1.6 |
Data from 2024-10-27