Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L17-24 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-0 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 57.7% | 27.4% |
| 5-3 | 36.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.0% (+0.2%) | 15.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.8% (-7.0%) | 23.4% (+7.5%) | |
| 20.4% (+4.6%) | 15.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 25.0% (+9.1%) | 15.0% (-0.8%) | |
| 15.8% (-0.0%) | 15.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.9% (+0.1%) | 15.4% (-0.4%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.5%) | 16.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Florida
Maine
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South CarolinaCCG: 23.4% • Scenario: 48.0%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
27.4%
51.9%
27.6%
5.8%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27