Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
70.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W45-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W71-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W45-37 | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 45.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 42.6% | 58.6% |
| 6-2 | 11.6% | 1.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.2% (-1.0%) | 75.1% (+4.9%) | |
| 71.6% (+1.4%) | 49.4% (-20.8%) | |
| 67.9% (-2.3%) | 76.2% (+6.0%) | |
| 70.3% (+0.1%) | 70.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.5% (+0.3%) | 69.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 70.0% (-0.2%) | 70.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rice
Charlotte
UTSA
UAB
Florida Atlantic
Air ForceCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneUTSACCG: 77.8% • Scenario: 26.1%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
45.0%Any 1 loss
58.6%
42.6%100.0%
3.0%
100.0%
0.8%
62.4%
15.2%
49.5%
23.6%Any 2 losses
1.6%
11.6%50.7%
<0.1%4.8%
0.3%3.9%
0.4%3.7%
1.0%2.2%
1.6%0.6%
8.2%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27