Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
54.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L15-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W27-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 62.6% | 86.3% |
| 6-2 | 32.7% | 1.9% |
| 5-3 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.5% (-0.1%) | 54.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.8% (-4.8%) | 59.9% (+5.2%) | |
| 56.0% (+1.4%) | 54.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 64.6% (+10.0%) | 53.8% (-0.9%) | |
| 55.0% (+0.3%) | 54.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 55.1% (+0.5%) | 52.3% (-2.4%) | |
| 54.5% (-0.1%) | 54.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Kentucky
Florida
MaineCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South CarolinaCCG: 59.9% • Scenario: 48.0%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.3%
62.6%Any 1 loss
1.9%
32.7%10.1%
2.2%2.7%
4.1%
2.4%
5.3%
0.8%
21.2%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27